Eli Beracha, director of the Hollo School of Real Estate at FIU Business, has won Pulsenomics' ‘Crystal Ball Award’ for the most accurate prediction of the 3-year horizon (2022, 2023 and 2024) Home Price Expectations Survey (HPES).
“Winning the 1st place among over 150 real estate economists in predicting future real estate market movement is a true honor," said Beracha. "It illustrates, once again, that the professors at the Hollo School of Real Estate are truly real estate professionals with knowledge that is applicable to the real world of real estate investment – the theory we teach is translated into knowledge you can actually use.”
Every quarter, Pulsenomics surveys a panel of over 150 economists, investment strategists and housing market analysts regarding their 5-year expectations for future home prices in the United States. The HPES, produced by Pulsenomics in partnership with Fannie Mae, has served as a real estate market barometer and go-to resource for anyone trying to understand where U.S. home prices might be headed.
“When you base your predictions on market fundamentals, you may not always be right in the short run, but over time, you tend to be accurate,” Beracha said. “That long-term view is what this award celebrates.”
Beracha’s approach relies on analyzing supply and demand, interest rates, wage growth, demographics, and housing shortages across geographic areas—factors he calls the “fundamentals.” He cautions, however, that forecasting will always face unpredictable external shocks such as political changes, tariffs or natural disasters.
“A lot of things can throw off a forecast temporarily,” Beracha said. “But markets revert to fundamentals. That’s the power of the model.”
Under Beracha’s leadership, the Hollo School of Real Estate has become a national leader in data-driven real estate research. He credits the school’s success to a strong research team and strategic use of external funding to incentivize innovation and scholarship.
“We hire the right people, and we give them the support they need,” Beracha said. “That includes securing outside funding to reward great research.”
So what’s Beracha’s forecast for the hot South Florida market? Looking ahead, he predicts Miami’s real estate market will see moderate price increases over the next three to five years, though condo prices may dip slightly as inventory adjusts. He remains cautious but optimistic, about single-family homes, which he believes will remain more stable.
With the Crystal Ball Award now on his shelf, Beracha is setting his sights on the future once again.
“It feels like a great accomplishment,” he said. “Now I’ll try to do it again.”